Dutch-Book Arguments against using Conditional Probabilities for Conditional Bets

Dutch Book Arguments and Imprecise Probabilities

I have an urn that contains 100 marbles. 30 of those marbles are red. The remainder are yellow. What sort of bets would you be willing to make on the outcome of the next marble drawn from the urn? What odds would you accept on the event “the next marble will be yellow?”. A reasonable punter should be willing to accept any betting quotient up to 0.7. I define “betting quotient” as the ratio of t...

Depragmatized Dutch Book Arguments*

Recently a number of authors have tried to avoid the failures of traditional Dutch book arguments by separating them from pragmatic concerns of avoiding a sure loss. In this paper I examine defenses of this kind by Howson and Urbach, Hellman, and Christensen. I construct rigorous explications of their arguments and show that they are not cogent. I advocate abandoning Dutch book arguments in fav...

Quantum Conditional Probabilities Are Not Probabilities of Quantum Conditional

Improving Naive Bayes Classifier Using Conditional Probabilities

Naive Bayes classifier is the simplest among Bayesian Network classifiers. It has shown to be very efficient on a variety of data classification problems. However, the strong assumption that all features are conditionally independent given the class is often violated on many real world applications. Therefore, improvement of the Naive Bayes classifier by alleviating the feature independence ass...

Handwritten Character Recognition using Conditional Probabilities

Handwritten Character Recognition is an important part of Pattern Recognition. This is also referred to as Intelligent Character Recognition (ICR). In this paper, a conditional probability based combination of multiple recognizers for character recognition will be introduced. After preprocessing the given character image, different feature recognition algorithms are employed, and their performa...